| prcpFit {ensembleBMA} | R Documentation |
The default ensembleBMAgamma0 model fit to the
precipitation data set from
http://www.stat.washington.edu/MURI,
which gives daily daily 48 hour forecasts of 24 hour accumulated
precipitation over the US Pacific Northwest region from December 12, 2002
through March 31, 2005 on a 9 member version of the University of Washington
mesoscale
ensemble (Grimit and Mass 2002; Eckel and Mass 2005).
Precipitation amounts are quantized to hundredths of an inch.
A list with the following arguments:
dateTabletrainingRuleprob0coefsbiasCoefsvarCoefsweightstransformationR function giving transformation of the data used in the BMA fitting.
inverseTransformationR function giving the inverse of transformation.
E. P. Grimit and C. F. Mass, Initial results of a mesoscale short-range ensemble forecasting system over the Pacific Northwest, Weather and Forecasting 17:192–205, 2002.
F. A. Eckel and C. F. Mass, Effective mesoscale, short-range ensemble forecasting, Weather and Forecasting 20:328–350, 2005.
J. M. Sloughter, A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting and C. Fraley, Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting using Bayesian model averaging, Monthly Weather Review 135:3309–3320, 2007.
C. Fraley, A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting and J. M. Sloughter,
ensembleBMA: An R Package for Probabilistic Forecasting
using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging,
Technical Report No. 516, Department of Statistics, University of
Washington, August 2007.
## Not run:
data(prcpFit)
bmaModelParameters(prcpFit, date = "20030113")
data(prcpGrid)
prcpGridData <- ensembleData(forecasts = prcpGrid[,1:9],
latitude = prcpGrid[,"latitude"],
longitude = prcpGrid[,"longitude"])
# probability of precipitation
1 - cdfBMA( prcpFit, prcpGridData, value = 0)
# probability of precipitation above 0.25 in
1 - cdfBMA( prcpFit, prcpGridData, date = "20030113", value = 25)
## End(Not run)