%\VignetteIndexEntry{Annexe Chapitre 9}
%\VignetteDepends{}
%\VignetteKeywords{ts}
%\VignettePackage{caschrono}
\documentclass{article}
\usepackage{Sweave}
\usepackage[latin1]{inputenc}
\usepackage{times}
\usepackage{mathptm}
\usepackage{hyperref}
\usepackage{natbib}
\usepackage{pratiquer}
\setkeys{Gin}{width=0.95\textwidth}
\renewcommand{\thefootnote}{\fnsymbol{footnote}}

\DeclareMathOperator*{\argmax}{argmax}
\DeclareMathOperator*{\argmin}{argmin}
\DeclareMathOperator{\BB}{BB}
\DeclareMathOperator{\BBN}{BBN}
\DeclareMathOperator{\rang}{rang}
\DeclareMathOperator{\tr}{tr}
\DeclareMathOperator{\V}{V}
\DeclareMathOperator{\C}{Cov}
\DeclareMathOperator{\Prob}{Pr}
\DeclareMathOperator{\diag}{diag}
\def\agra{\boldsymbol{a}} % a grave
%
\def\alg{\boldsymbol{\alpha}}
\def\b{\mbox{\bf b}}
%
\def\B{\mbox{\bf B}}
\def\BB#1{\mbox{BB}(0,\sigma_{#1}^2)}
\def\bm{\mbox{B}}
\def\betg{\boldsymbol{\beta}}
\def\bar#1#2{\overline{#1}_{#2}} % surlign\'e indic\'e
\def\bgr{\mbox{\bf b}}
\def\bla{\mbox{~}}
\def\blb{\mbox{~~}}
%
\def\card{\mbox{card}}
\def\corr{\mbox{corr}}
\def\cov{\mbox{\sf cov}}
\def\cv{\mbox{CV}}
%
\def\D{\mbox{\bf D}}
\def\d{\bf d}
\def\degr{^{\circ}}
\def\deltag{\boldsymbol{\delta}}
\def\Deltag{\boldsymbol{\Delta}} % ligne 64
\def\diag{\mbox{diag}}
\def\dir{\mbox{\tiny{DIR}}}
\def\dsp{\displaystyle}
%
\def\e{\mbox{\bf e}}
\def\eps{{\bf \epsilon}}
\def\esp{\mbox{\sf E}}
\def\eti{\tilde{\epsilon}}

\def\F{\mbox{\bf F}}
\def\g{\mbox{\bf g}}
\def\gamg{\boldsymbol{\Gamma}}
\def\gamgp{\boldsymbol{\gamma}}
\def\hors{\mathbin{\in\mkern-12mu/}}

\def\I{\mbox{\bf I}}
\def\indic{\mathrm{I\mkern-8muI}}
\def\ie{c'est-\`a-dire}
\def\iid{\sim_{\mbox{i.i.d.}}}
\def\lm{\mbox{L}}

\def\mapsous#1{\smash{ \mathop{\longrightarrow}\limits_{#1}}} %
\def\mapsur#1{\smash{ \mathop{\longrightarrow}\limits^{#1}}}  %
\def\M{\mbox{\bf M}}
\def\mug{\boldsymbol{\mu}}
\def\nor{\mathcal{N}}
\def\nug{\boldsymbol{\nu}}
\def\Nx{\mbox{\bf N}}
\def\P{\mbox{\bf P}}
\def\Phig{\boldsymbol{\Phi}}
\def\phig{\boldsymbol{\phi}}
\def\poi{\mbox{\cal P}}
\def\pr{\mbox{Pr}}
\def\prim{^{\boldsymbol{\prime}}}
\def\px{\mbox{\bf x}}

\def\Rho{\boldsymbol{\rho}}
\def\rl{\mathbin{I\mkern-8muR}} % Reel
\def\RR{\textsf{R}\/}

\newcommand{\sig}[2]{\Sigma_{{#1},{#2}}}
\def \sitst{\textsf{SiteST}\/}
\def\SP{\texttt{S-PLUS}\/}
\def\T{\mbox{\bf T}}
\def\tr{\triangle}
\def\t{\mbox{\bf t}}
\def\tra{\mbox{tr}}

\def\U{\mbox{\bf U}}
\def\Unif{\emph{Unif}}
\def\u{\mbox{\bf u}}
\def\v{\mbox{\bf v}}

\def\w{\mbox{\bf w}}
\def\var{\mbox{\sf var}}
\def\W{\mbox{\bf W}}
\def\X{\textbf{X}}
\def\x{\textbf{x}}

\def\Y{\textbf{Y}}
\def\yg{\textbf{y}}
\def\y0{y^0}

\def\Z{\textbf{Z}}
\def\z{ \textbf{z}}
\def\zer{\large{0}}
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\urlstyle{sf}
\def\rmdefault{cmr}

%%%% pour les chiffres des \'equations
\makeatletter
\renewcommand\theequation{\thesection.\arabic{equation}}
\@addtoreset{equation}{section}
\makeatother

\title{Temp\'erature \`a Nottingham Castle (compl\'ements du Chapitre 9)}
\author{Yves Aragon\footnote{yves.aragon@gmail.com} \cr
{\normalsize Universit\'e Toulouse 1 Capitole} }
\begin{document}
\maketitle
\setcounter{section}{9}
\renewcommand{\thefootnote}{\arabic{footnote}}

\SweaveOpts{keep.source=TRUE}
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owidth <- getOption("width") # largeur des sorties
options(width=60, continue="+ ","warn"=-1 )
.PngNo <- 0
nom.fich = "./Figures/anx9-bitmap-"
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%  ancien
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pdf(file=paste(file,".pdf",sep=""), width = 7, height = 7, pointsize = 12, bg = "white")
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pdf(file=paste(file,".pdf",sep=""), width = 5, height = 2, pointsize = 10, bg = "white")
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pdf(file=paste(file,".pdf",sep=""), width = 5.92, height = 6.74, pointsize = 10, bg = "white")
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pdf(file=paste(file,".pdf",sep=""), width = 6, height = 6, pointsize = 10, bg = "white")
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<<label=zfig2,echo=FALSE,eval=FALSE>>=
dev.null <- dev.off()
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<<label=zfiginclude,echo=FALSE,eval=FALSE>>=
cat("\\includegraphics[width=0.9\\textwidth]{", file, "}\n\n", sep="")
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\begin{Exercice}[Filtrage]
Nous avons vu que les mod\`eles SARIMA et ARMAX ont des variances r\'esiduelles et des qualit\'es pr\'edictives intra-\'echantillon identiques.
Pour comprendre cette proximit\'e :
\begin{itemize}
  \item calculer les diff\'erences saisonni\`eres de chaque variable explicative (matrice xmat1a) et examiner quelques lignes de cette matrice de diff\'erences saisonni\`eres ;
  \item calculer   la moyenne et la variance de chaque s\'erie obtenue ;
  \item calculer la diff\'erence saisonni\`ere de \code{nott1}, la  moyenne et la variance de cette s\'erie filtr\'ee. Expliquer.
\end{itemize}
\end{Exercice}

R\'eponse.

{\small
<<>>=
data("nottem")
nott1 = window(nottem, end = c(1936, 12))
nott2 = window(nottem, start = c(1937, 1))
f = t(as.matrix(1:6))/12
temps = as.matrix(1:length(nottem))
# \'elimination de la colonne nulle
xmat0 = cbind(cos(2*pi*temps%*%f), sin(2*pi*temps%*%f))[,-12]
xmat0 = as.data.frame(xmat0)
colnames(xmat0) = c("cos_1", "cos_2", "cos_3", "cos_4", "cos_5", "cos_6",
                    "sin_1", "sin_2", "sin_3", "sin_4", "sin_5")
# s\'eparation des intervalles d'estimation et de pr\'evision
xmat1 = xmat0[1:204, ] ; xmat2 = xmat0[205:240, ]
attach(xmat1, warn.conflicts = FALSE)
xmat1a = cbind(cos_1, sin_1, sin_2, sin_4)
# calcul des variances de chaque colonne
(v.explicatives = apply(xmat1a, 2, "var"))
(m.expli.filt = apply(diff(xmat1a, 12), 2, "mean"))
(v.expli.filt = apply(diff(xmat1a, 12), 2, "var"))
# calcul de la variance de ychapeau
@
}

Les s\'eries transform\'ees sont nulles.  Elles ont \'et\'e absorb\'ees par le filtre de diff\'erence saisonni\`ere, ou encore, ``les fonctions
$\cos(\omega t) $ et $ \sin(\omega t)$ de p\'eriode 12 sont vecteurs propres associ\'ees \`a la valeur propre 0 pour ce filtre''.

\end{document}
